By Travis Reems
Filed Tuesday, September 26 at 8:41 AM
This morning St. Louis Public Schools released information stating that in the first four weeks of the school year they hit 99% of projected enrollment and that a majority of schools made their attendance targets: 90% for highschools, 92% for middle schools, and 95% for elementary schools.
What was glossed over in the press release, but was obvious in the detailed attachment was that this performance target was missed by nearly 30% of the schools. Here is the detailed data:
HIGH SCHOOLS (90% ATTENDANCE TARGET)
8 OUT OF 17 HIGH SCHOOLS MEET OR EXCEED
GATEWAY HIGH SCHOOL
NOTTINGHAM CAJT
CAREER ACADEMY
CLEVELAND NJROTC
METRO HIGH SCHOOL - 98.52% ATTENDANCE
SOLDAN INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
MEL CARNAHAN SCHOOL OF THE FUTURE
NORTHWEST TRANSPORTATION AND LAW ACADEMY
MIDDLE SCHOOLS (92% ATTENDANCE TARGET)
12 OUT OF 18 SCHOOLS MEET OR EXCEED
BLEWETT MIDDLE SCHOOL
BUSCH ATHLETIC & ACADEMIC MIDDLE SCHOOL
CARR LANE MIDDLE SCHOOL
BUNCHE INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
MCKINLEY CLASSICAL JR. ACADEMY
FANNING MIDDLE SCHOOL
HUMBOLDT MIDDLE SCHOOL – 98.77% ATTENDANCE RATE
LANGSTON MIDDLE SCHOOL
L'OUVERTURE MIDDLE SCHOOL
COMPTON-DREW ILC
STEVENS MIDDLE CEC
GATEWAY 7-9 PREP SCHOOL
ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS (95% ATTENDANCE TARGET)
45 OUT OF 57 MEET OR EXCEED
ADAMS ELEMENTARY – 99.81% ATTENDANCE RATE
BADEN ELEMENTARY
BRYAN HILL ELEMENTARY
BUDER ELEMENTARY
AMES ELEMENTARY
CLARK ELEMENTARY
CLAY CEC
COLE ELEMENTARY
COLUMBIA CEC
COTE BRILLIANTE ELEMENTARY
DEWEY INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
DUNBAR ELEMENTARY
KOTTMEYER ECCIII
EUCLID MONTESSORI
FARRAGUT ACCELERATED
FORD CEC
FROEBEL ELEMENTARY
GATEWAY ELEMENTARY
HENRY ELEMENTARY
HICKEY ELEMENTARY
HERZOG CEC
HODGEN ELEMENTARY
JEFFERSON ELEMENTARY
KENNARD CJA
LEXINGTON ELEMENTARY
LYON ABI
MALLINCKRODT ABI
MANN ELEMENTARY
MARK TWAIN ELEMENTARY
MASON ELEMENTARY
MITCHELL ELEMENTARY
MULLANPHY ELEMENTARY
OAK HILL ELEMENTARY
EARL NANCE SR. ELEMENTARY
PEABODY ELEMENTARY
SCRUGGS ELEMENTARY
SHAW VPA-CEC
SHEPARD ACCELERATED
SHERMAN CEC
STIX ECC I
WALBRIDGE ECC-ACC
WOERNER ELEMENTARY
WASHINGTON MONTESSORI
WILKINSON ECC I
WOODWARD ELEMENTARY
The 27 schools (29%) that missed their targeted goals are not listed in the release.
19 Comments:
To achieve 99% of the projected enrollment exceeds what most believed to be possible. This shows a high degree of confidence in the district in spite of the efforts of some in the community. Attendance targets of 90% for high schools, 92% for middle schools and 95% for elementary schools are quite ambitious especially when in 2005 total districts attendance was only 89.4% and last year, 2006 only 88.4%. Those new attendance figures are outstanding. Congratulations to the teachers, principals, staff, board members and superintendent who made it happen.
Tuesday, September 26, 2006 11:32:00 AM
That had to be a monumental effort on the part of teachers and principals district wide. Those were very high goals to reach. Hats off to our wonderful school staffs.
Tuesday, September 26, 2006 12:20:00 PM
Alright, anonymous, why congratulate the teachers, and principals for attendance, did they send out info to the students and parents? Did they go get children out of their homes and into schools?
I will congratulate the Super, board members and their staffs who put out notices and created back to school rallys and such.
Tuesday, September 26, 2006 12:21:00 PM
Gee, anon, maybe they are being congratualted because many of them put in numerous extra hours each day calling and visiting parents and guardians to see if they could do anything to help the families get their children to school.
Tuesday, September 26, 2006 2:04:00 PM
"Projected enrollment" is how many kids the district planners thought would enroll. Presumably, the projections, which were made before school opened, were already adjusted to account for kids whose parents were likely to send them elsewhere.
"Attendance target" is a goal to get a certain percentage of kids in their desks. In high schools, the attendance target was that only 1 out of every 10 enrolled students would be someplace other than in school on a given school day -- and half the schools didn't manage that sad goal.
Why isn't the target 100 percent for every school?
Tuesday, September 26, 2006 3:25:00 PM
Sad goal? Nine out of ten right on a spelling test is an A. 100% attendance doesn't even happen in affluent districts. On any given day there will always be some students out sick or at a funeral, or even caring for a sick relative who needs them. We have quite a few students who suffer from chronic illnesses. We also have a lot of homeless students (a larger number than you think) who are barely getting by, and getting them to school was not a concern when Creg Williams was in charge. He didn't even budget money for them to have transportation. Are you offering to help out with our families that are struggling to see that their children are in school every day?
Tuesday, September 26, 2006 7:49:00 PM
brian are you a happy person?
Tuesday, September 26, 2006 8:41:00 PM
Worried Citizen,
You thank teachers because students would not come back to school each day if they were not encouraged by their teachers. I'll never forget when my child was in 3rd grade. Each evening when I went to tuck her in, she would say, "Mom, I'm excited about school tomorrow because..." Her teacher always gave her some reason to look forward to the next day. A fun activity, incentive or whatever is what kept away her fake illnesses. She liked her teacher and was excited. I see a whole new morale for the most part in the city schools this year from students, administration, and labor. That's why attendance is good. Sure it takes letters at first to get them there, but it takes administration and TEACHERS to keep them coming back. So thank you anony #1 for the congratulations. Worried citizen can now start worrying about something else.
Tuesday, September 26, 2006 8:50:00 PM
Everyone needs to understand that it is the Parent and NOT the school district, school board, teachers or principals who should be held accountable for getting children to school. It is not my job to get children out of bed and out of the house. Parents need to get thier children, no matter what their age, to school.
Worried citizen, yes, as a teacher I DID send out info to parents about the opening of school. That is why most people are congratulating the teachers and principals. While we are at it the the entire staff at each and every school should be congratulated. The office staff and parent support staff have done an outstanding job calling and sending letters to get students in school everyday.
Stop being a "worried citizen". Become a useful one and get involved in the school in your area.
Tuesday, September 26, 2006 9:33:00 PM
Well, worried citizen, the principal and teachers at our school hosted our back to school picnic on a Saturday before school started to welcome all of us. That was on their own time, my children knew their teachers cared enough about them to show up that day and make them feel comfortable, and I appreciate them for that. I agree with the idea that the parents or families are really the ones who got the kids there, but a welcoming school is the result of the staff, and as a parent I want my kids there because the staff cares. It goes full circle. The above has it right, be useful, not worried, and make a difference.
Wednesday, September 27, 2006 1:56:00 PM
I do not understand this information. because of the circumstances of the media coverage this sounds like a spin control release.
The media jumped all over the 72% first day number and slammed Bourisaw and the rest of the school district with exorbitant glee. And never said another word. That was the last the general public heard about the issue. 72,72,72,72,72,72,72, bad schools, bad schools, bad schools, bad schools, need a state takeover, need a state takeover.
So---------now we get "some hit, some miss".
We do not get apples to apples comparisons to 2005. We do not get clear overall numbers. There is nothing on the order of "attendance is up several points""attendance is up several points""attendance is up several points""attendance is up several points"---"improving schools"improving schools"improving schools"improving schools"improving schools" "media was misleading""media was misleading""media was misleading""media was misleading""media was misleading".
What this information says is "huh"?
Wednesday, September 27, 2006 2:41:00 PM
Spiro:
The information posted was what the district released. Other than the schools of which they were proud by hitting their targets, we were not given the names of the schools that did not achieve their goals, and even for the ones that did, the actual attendance data was only given for those highest achievers. The type of year to year analysis you seek is only possible with the raw data, which was not provided.
Wednesday, September 27, 2006 8:55:00 PM
My intent was right, but it probably came across wrong---I knew you could only give us what the school provided.
If it was presented this way to finesse the fact that attendance is actually down, then...it seems vaguely dishonest.
If they presented it this way and overall attendance is up, that should have been made clear.
Thanks for posting it---you are doing what you can.
Thursday, September 28, 2006 12:31:00 AM
Holy Cannoli!
Where did all the kids go?
The original press release states:
"Dr. Diana M. Bourisaw, Superintendent of the St. Louis Public Schools, today announced that the district’s enrollment for the 2006-2007 school year reached 34,086, or 99.9% of the projected enrollment as of last Friday, the end of the first four weeks of school."
Enrolment is 34,086. According to the DESE site, last fall's enrollment was 39,438.
That's a drop of 5,352!!!
Did the number of students really drop by that much?
Or is there a game being played in order to reach a 99.9%?
Something doesn't make sense.
Thursday, September 28, 2006 2:40:00 PM
Worried Citizen,
If it weren't for the school staff I wouldn't have known that my daughter's ECSE class didn't begin until September 5th. All communication from the district admin level said August 28th. I applaud the school principal, teachers and secretary for keeping us informed and doing such a great job with our kids!
Thursday, September 28, 2006 2:57:00 PM
Anon at 3:40:13, the DESE website also lists 37,166 as the enrollment for 2005 in it's demographic data section, besides the 39,438 in the financial data section, and 36,874 in another section, and lists charter schools under the city schools individual building data. My point is that their number may include charters, and is listed differently on different pages. Sometimes pre-school is counted, sometimes it isn't. Sometimes charters are added in, sometimes they are not. We need to only compare apples to apples here before we start making accusations of a five thousand student loss. Wait until the 2006 column is added to the page where you see the 2005 data you are using to make you comparison, please.
Thursday, September 28, 2006 3:45:00 PM
Anon 4:45:16 - Excellent points. Do you know what comprises the 34,086?
Also, do you know how the DESE develops its projections? I'm curious since the 34,086 is well below any of the 2006 projected numbers.
http://dese.mo.gov/schooldata/profile/p5115115.txt
Thursday, September 28, 2006 4:38:00 PM
Using the three years of historical data listed on the DESE page at the url you gave for 2003-2005(42654, 41263,and 40029) I get a projection of only 38690 with my forecasting model in Excel, but if they used additional years of history when they projected 2006, that would alter the result, of course. One is not likely to go out more years into the future than there are years of history to use in the projection.
Of course, any model is based on past trends continuing into the future. There are other models that incorporate actual population shifts and effects sizes of additional variables that may also influence the outcome. There are excellent data people at MO DESE who have been well ahead of other states for many years, and it is possible that they are using something fairly sophisticated. This may be necessary with the Charter Schools opening and closing and with the Deseg agreement ending.
Thursday, September 28, 2006 7:25:00 PM
Projected enrollments are somewhat complicated. You cannot solely look at last years attendance. The district also needs to look at housing starts and kindergarten birth data. This is done by watching trends over time. It has always been difficult to predict date in specific schools because of the high transitive nature of some families. Some of the schools are overprojections and some are underprojections. It varies and it is not always easy to predict. Teachers were balanced on Friday in order to cover needs that were not projected.
Thursday, September 28, 2006 9:24:00 PM
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